Thursday, October 05, 2006

Recount In Quebec And It's Consequences

A recount in Quebec is already underway, not because of hanging chads (What, a 6 year old joke isn't funny? You'd think I'm Jay Leno...) but because the original counters counted wrong. CTV reports that:
According to three different leadership camps, the recount started Thursday afternoon after it was discovered that party officials in Quebec had incorrectly rejected blank ballots or those cast for candidates who've dropped out of the contest.

Under party rules, those ballots should have been counted as undeclared or uncommitted.

The full news report can be read by clicking here. The consequences for this recount are of some importance. Now since those ballots are no longer rejected, but are considered undeclared ballots, that increases the number of undeclared delegates as well as reduces the delegates for the front-runners in Quebec, Ignatieff and Dion.

It reduces Ignatieff's and Dion's as the percentage of undeclared ballots would garner delegate spots and reduce Ignatieff's and Dion's percentages in that riding and thus reduce their delegates. CTV estimates Ignatieff and Dion could lose up to 35 delegates.

Also the report also suggests that the Liberal Party in general failed Quebec. Gerard Kennedy was blasted for his 1.7% turn out in that province, now that percent will increase due to the recount, but also only 10% of the registered Liberal eligible to vote actually did. This indicates the whole Liberal Party failed Quebec. I am a Kennedy supporter. but this article is very disappointing in its exposing of the Liberal Party's problem in Quebec.


Blogger Dan McKenzie said...

I think technically it could shrink any of the candidates totals. Not just Dion and Iggy's. However the more delegates you won the more likely you are to lose some as a result of this recount... I guess.

The change will probably be quite small.

10:20 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yea, its unlikely to increase kennedy's quebec percentage at all because the affected delegate spots will simply become "undeclared" delegate spots. It will however slightly reduce the standing of stephane dion, putting Kennedy's national lead over him even further ahead.

I just hope we get some more results soon, this slow trickle is ridiculous and embarrassing.

10:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

only 10 percent of Liberal members voted in the 2003 leadership.

10:53 PM  
Blogger Antonio said...

it can go both ways

I wont divulge actual numbrs because frankly, I dont know if the organizers want me to, but it can hurt gerard too

10:54 PM  
Anonymous MississaugaPeter said...

The Montreal Gazette also reports:

only about 10% of eligible Liberal voters actually voted this past weekend. That means:

1. Only about 3,000 - 4,000 votes in all of Quebec were cast. That comes out to about 1,300 votes in all of Quebec for Iggy; about 1,100 votes in all of Quebec for Dion; and about 900 votes in all of Quebec for Dion. These total numbers are pathetic.

2. With over 1,200 delegates coming from Quebec, that is about 1 delegate for every 3 votes. It just does not seem fair when I know of ridings that had hundreds of Liberal voters and only 14 delegates were chosen.

IMO, if the Montreal Gazette article and CTV story are correct, Iggy, Dion, and Rae are no better (and probably worse) candidates to rejuvenate the Liberal Party in Quebec than Gerard.

10:59 PM  
Blogger s.b. said...

does it or does it indicate that there were more "manufactured" members in Quebec. If it weren't for massively over reported new memberships that were actually "bullshit memberships", see fuddle duddle for my definition, would the turnout actually have been the closer to elsewhere.

4:32 AM  
Blogger Sinestra said...

Let the Iggsters spin it all they want. It was not a happy day for Team Iggy Quebec yesterday.

7:38 AM  
Blogger Neo Conservative said...

It's not so much that voters in Quebec didn't like Gerard Kennedy in particular... they just didn't like Liberals in general.

8:40 AM  
Blogger Cerberus said...

The party miscounted some delegate forms. They mistakenly rejected Bevilacqua/Bennett/Fry delegate votes instead of considering them to be undeclared. The Ignatieff campaign pointed that out even though it would likely affect them most and, because a consensus could not be reached among the campaigns about how to deal with it, they are appropriately having a recount.

We're talking about 25-35 delegates out of about 1100. That's 3% or so. Even if they all were Ignatieff delegates (which obviously they aren't) that drops him from about 38% to around 35%. Still a comfortable lead over Dion.


8:41 AM  

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