Monday, September 17, 2007

What Does Outremont Mean?

For about a month, pundits on television have been spewing that Outremont is a litmus test, a referendum, a Leadership vote, and whatever other terms that convey some form of judgment upon Stephane Dion. I did hear from various Liberals the same thing. I heard that as Dion was elected over Kennedy because of his Quebec connections, the pressure was on Dion to turn out the vote.

Within the last few weeks, polls have come out showing the Liberals will lose. Within the last few weeks, I've ceased hearing such talk within the Party of a test for Dion. Within the last few weeks rumours have begun to be milled.

The most disturbing is the rumour Ignatieff supporters are throwing the election there on the understanding it would reflect horribly on Dion, perhaps to the extent of ousting him from office. The rumour was given "legs" by Steve Mahar in the Herald, the article can be read here. However it wasn't until Justin Tetreault gave empirical evidence to the support of the rumour that it could be speculated such a rumour is not a rumour at all.

As Justin notes, and quite rightly, that if anything, it is most likely not connected to Ignatieff. Michael has shown immense support for Liberals in that riding, visiting it 5 times thus far, not to mention his other supporting MPs. If I had to, I would assume that there were some Ignatieff supporters, unto themselves, who have decided to throw the election.

Besides Justin's observations, there are various other features that would lead me to such a conclusion.

1.The riding has been Liberal for 80 years (losing it but once).
2.In 2006, the Liberals won the election with over 3,000 votes over the Bloc.
3. In 2006, the NDP had been third, over 7,000 votes behind the Liberals.
4. Ignatieff had the most delegates from that riding (here)

Cerberus in Justin's comments had suggested it was just incompetance and a weak party structure. I would think a weak party structure could not have pulled off 80 years of dominance, nor does it explain how the NDP has become number one in the polls.

What does Outremont mean? I believe in some shape and form Outremont is a vote on Dion's leadership. Dion appointed Coulon, that says it right there. Dion thought Coulon was the best bet, therefore if Liberals lose in Outremont, he should take at least responsibility for the appointment. I personally believe all apointments in a riding are wrong when the riding association is competent. It is by that sentiment that I would hold Dion perhaps even more accountable for any result, win or lose.



Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have you forgotten the fact that the NDP opponents if a former Liberal cabinet Minister and extremely well known and liked in Quebec?
I guess this has no impact on the byelection result.

5:04 PM  
Blogger Daniel Mosely said...

So a former Liberal who is well liked gave the NDP 20% additional votes?

Where the current Liberals are not liked, and fell 8%?

So are you saying we should all become former Liberals?

8:25 PM  

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